Honest update on our race

Today’s Beyond the Whiteboard is going to attempt to cut through the noise and explain where things stand in our race for the U.S. Senate.

First off, the polls: Polling in this race has really fluctuated, But this week two NEW polls dropped. The first, showed us in third place, behind Republican Steve Garvey by six points. The second, conducted later when voters had more time to see our ads, showed us one point ahead of Garvey and in second place. These polls also show that large margins of voters—nearly 20% are still undecided about who to support.

Wait, second place? Yep! Second place is good enough this time. In California’s primary, the top two vote getters, of any party, advance to the general election. 

That’s why there are so many negative ads: Adam Schiff and his super PAC are running ads to consolidate Republican support behind our Republican opponent Steve Garvey. Both ads that explicitly tell Fox News viewers that Garvey “voted for Trump twice” and ads that tell voters he has a real shot at flipping the Senate (a load of BS), aim to box us out of the general and end my time in Congress for good.

On top of that, a dark money super PAC funded by a handful of crypto-billionaires has spent $7M on ads attacking me. Their first ad was deemed “false” by independent fact-checkers at the Sacramento Bee, and their second ad is no better, and filled with personal attacks.

Why do these super PACs care about this race? This is about some billionaires and corporate interests getting their candidate of choice, someone they’ve seen bend to their will before. As Slate reported. "[Garvey] is going to lose. The question is whether, on March 5, his remarkably vapid campaign takes a few California Democrats down with him. If Garvey does advance, it would essentially ensure that a centrist like Schiff would win the general election for the Senate seat—a coup for the old-guard Democratic moderates like Nancy Pelosi, and a frustrating miss for progressives hoping to shift Feinstein’s old seat at least slightly to the left."

We just can’t keep up, money-wise: We’re being outspent three to one on TV, and Schiff has been aggressively upping his spending the past few days—another sign of how close the polls are.

Last bit of bad news: Ballots are being returned at a really low rate, with around 5% returned. We’re on track for a low turnout election, even by primary standards. Polls show I tend to do well with younger voters, who tend not to show up in low turnout contests, so this is a worrying sign.

So here’s the game plan for the final week and a half: This is still winnable! And because SO many ballots are still out there we know we can pull through. We still have time to place TV ad reservations and can spend more on digital ads minute by minute. So anything you can pitch in now will be put to immediate use helping us stand up to corporate special interests to win this race. You can use this link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/kpsubstackq124&refcode=0224

I promise to get back to our normally scheduled content soon—breaking down issues like housing affordability and mental health policy. But my whiteboard and I could be out of Congress for good, so thank you in advance for anything you can give. And California voters—be sure to get your ballot in by March 5th, and tell at least 3 friends to do the same!

—Katie

Plus, a few photos from the campaign trail!